...If I'm right than vintage guitars will get affordable in the next 10 years. But if that's the case then they are at best a short term investment or flipping opportunity. But everyone can make their own mind up on where they think the market is going and the value for the money and do as they will, just sharing my perspective.
A key feature of understanding the collector's market is that speculation will drive the market either way. Although I personally know nothing about the stock market, I do know that If trend indicators suggest the market will turn one direction, there are numerous parameters that will serve as directionals that can help predict the market's upturn or downturn.
Because a collector's market is driven by desirability and demand, only those who's eyes desire something of value will likely pursue its purchase. Commercial advertisers know this, and although there is no strict advertiser's market for collector's items except on used retail, auction, or sales websites, it's less likely that used pieces are advertised than new ones. Many people will buy things (new or used) to fill a material need if they are discouraged or disturbed about their current lives. Advertisers know this facet of human psychology and will market to this group, because this group will more likely buy than people who are content with their lives.
Those who are happier are less likely to allow GAS to choose for them what their next purchase will be. (How do I know this? Been there, got the T-shirt.) Every time I've gotten GAS for some new item, it was because my life was going through a period of flux where I was not content with my life. It's almost as if I felt hunger pangs for a good meal. It was as if I needed something to fill the void in my stomach. Except the void was psychological; my discontent with my current life.
As soon as a new item was purchased, the pangs ceased. That was, until I felt discontented again. Then the cycle began all over again.
So when do people sell desirable items at the highest price? When the demand for desirability is highest, and people are discontented.
Economics may not be my best subject, but I do know a little about what drives sales during uncertain times. Uncertainty equates to volatility, and folks on this forum well know that GAS is a cruel mistress that can leave you feeling empty unless that void is filled.