Are we going to be replaced?

In "Shapes of Things" the Yardbirds ask, "Will time make men more wise?" Personally, in spite of what we may tell ourselves about the state of our evolution, the answer is a resounding no. We have proven time and time again we are incapable of handling advanced technology. Someone will always misuse it to their advantage and to the disadvantage of many others. It's just the way humans currently are.

It's bad enough that AI is creeping into music production. End of the world? No. But, the grave threat to humanity that workers in that very industry are warning us about goes way beyond making musicians or artists unemployed. I've lost my rose-colored glasses over the years, so I cannot say I'm optimistic about the future of mankind in general.

Hate to be the downer at the party, but this "Advanced technology is going to be great for you" sh!t has been pissing me off for years. It's not going to be great for the vast majority of us, and apparently there is no way to stop it from happening.

Sorry. Rant over.
 
I am, by nature, a positive person. I hate to be the Debbie Downer, but it's been evident for 10 years now, that we are simply managing the decline...

The Egyptian Empire, the Greek Empire, the Roman Empire, the Aztec Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the English Empire, they all collapsed. They didn't just disappear. Some people still survived, and some of us will too, but it will not look the same as before and will take many years to get back to the summit that was ... us. In his book, the fate of Empires, Sir John Glubb demonstrated that the average age of an Empire is 250 years. We have existed as a nation for 248. We seem to prove him right...
 
In "Shapes of Things" the Yardbirds ask, "Will time make men more wise?" Personally, in spite of what we may tell ourselves about the state of our evolution, the answer is a resounding no. We have proven time and time again we are incapable of handling advanced technology. Someone will always misuse it to their advantage and to the disadvantage of many others. It's just the way humans currently are.

It's bad enough that AI is creeping into music production. End of the world? No. But, the grave threat to humanity that workers in that very industry are warning us about goes way beyond making musicians or artists unemployed. I've lost my rose-colored glasses over the years, so I cannot say I'm optimistic about the future of mankind in general.

Hate to be the downer at the party, but this "Advanced technology is going to be great for you" sh!t has been pissing me off for years. It's not going to be great for the vast majority of us, and apparently there is no way to stop it from happening.

Sorry. Rant over.
What I see happening with technology is what happened in the novel Frankenstein. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but when the doctor realized he went to far I believe he said to the monster "but I created you," to which the monster replied "yes, you are my creator but I am your master, Obey!"

I see it turning around and biting us all.
 
Fear and the resulting anxiety are such powerful things for us. We're taught from an early age to be afraid of change.

The printing press made monks copying Bibles obsolete. What became of all of the monks?

We're on the verge of something spectacular, if we can embrace it. I'm not talking about the technology. I'm talking about the time. Productivity is about to make a giant leap. It's not the first time it's happened and it won't be the last, if history is any guide.

Three-hundred years ago, I'd likely have been an agricultural laborer. I'd have worked from dawn to dusk, every day. 150 years ago I'd have been working in a factory, likely doing twelve hours a day five days per week, with a half-Saturday (if I was lucky). Until two weeks ago, I was an office worker doing 40-50 hours a week.

We have the possibility of a 20-hour work week ahead of us, in my lifetime. More time for content consumption, Mr. Cynic. Or perhaps more time for family, creativity, and the arts. Think of all of the talent currently untapped in uncreative pursuits that has the potential to be nurtured and freed.

Resisting change like this because of fear is against my own interests.
 
Fear and the resulting anxiety are such powerful things for us. We're taught from an early age to be afraid of change.

The printing press made monks copying Bibles obsolete. What became of all of the monks?

We're on the verge of something spectacular, if we can embrace it. I'm not talking about the technology. I'm talking about the time. Productivity is about to make a giant leap. It's not the first time it's happened and it won't be the last, if history is any guide.

Three-hundred years ago, I'd likely have been an agricultural laborer. I'd have worked from dawn to dusk, every day. 150 years ago I'd have been working in a factory, likely doing twelve hours a day five days per week, with a half-Saturday (if I was lucky). Until two weeks ago, I was an office worker doing 40-50 hours a week.

We have the possibility of a 20-hour work week ahead of us, in my lifetime. More time for content consumption, Mr. Cynic. Or perhaps more time for family, creativity, and the arts. Think of all of the talent currently untapped in uncreative pursuits that has the potential to be nurtured and freed.

Resisting change like this because of fear is against my own interests.
Sorry Mike, but I respectfully disagree. Those advancements you mention were designed by human beings. What we are facing now is massive change designed by computer software.

That software has already shown to be flawed - it can "hallucinate" as they call it - making up a false answers to questions. Algorithmic biases will lead to skewed or misleading results. Our privacy will be totally obliterated. It's misuse will lead to accelerated data hacking. Unintended consequences we can't even imagine now will come to pass.

As I said in post #4, there are those who will come to its defense. Just remember, AI has no soul, no inherent moral compass. And worst of all, there are people out there, also without a moral compass, who will use this immensely powerful tool to further evil intent. It's like giving a machine gun to a monkey.

Are there positive benefits to AI? Sure, but when weighing those benefits against the serious risks AI poses, it behooves us all to beware of those risks before it is too late to alter course. Here again, if there are software engineers within the AI companies who are highly concerned and whose voices are being silenced by those companies, maybe we ought to pay attention and not be hypnotized by the "This is going to be great" BS that is expected, even as our ship takes on water and starts to sink.
 
I Am All For Going Back In Time To The Real Things On All Levels. All This Tech Stuff Does Is Isolate People And Stifle Them On Virtually (No Pun Intended) Every Level. Virtual Friends, Virtual Relationships, AI Music, Auto Tune, And On And On And On. People Are Addicted To Tech And Have Lost The Ability To Think, Communicate, Interact, Etc. I Am NOT A Fan.

Music Lovers, Musicians, Instrument Makers, Etc All Need To Be Vocal And Reject This Nonsense And Don't Quit Doing What You Do Musically And Cave Into This Tech. My $.02 YMMV
Well said!
 
Sorry Mike, but I respectfully disagree. Those advancements you mention were designed by human beings. What we are facing now is massive change designed by computer software.

That software has already shown to be flawed - it can "hallucinate" as they call it - making up a false answers to questions. Algorithmic biases will lead to skewed or misleading results. Our privacy will be totally obliterated. It's misuse will lead to accelerated data hacking. Unintended consequences we can't even imagine now will come to pass.

As I said in post #4, there are those who will come to its defense. Just remember, AI has no soul, no inherent moral compass. And worst of all, there are people out there, also without a moral compass, who will use this immensely powerful tool to further evil intent. It's like giving a machine gun to a monkey.

Are there positive benefits to AI? Sure, but when weighing those benefits against the serious risks AI poses, it behooves us all to beware of those risks before it is too late to alter course. Here again, if there are software engineers within the AI companies who are highly concerned and whose voices are being silenced by those companies, maybe we ought to pay attention and not be hypnotized by the "This is going to be great" BS that is expected, even as our ship takes on water and starts to sink.

FUD. That’s what you’ve written. It’s no different than any other fear. What you don’t understand has driven your emotional response. It’s not your fault—just your nature.

The hyperbole you’ve engaged in is all fear-based. You say the consequences are unimaginable. I’d suggest we’ve imagined the worst-case and have done so quite easily. Do you also have fears about CERN and creating a black hole? Or about environmental disaster? Perhaps the Yellowstone caldera?

It’s all about what you choose to fear. The world will keep changing. Fight it and get left behind. Or…. Look at the positives. Use your imagination to dream of what might be. It’s not often in human history that worst-case scenarios come to be. Never, actually. It’s also not often that best-case scenarios come to pass.

The one constant is that our lives keep getting better. Longer lifespans, more affluence, less work and more recreation. That’s been the constant throughout recorded history. Have a little faith. Cynicism has yet to prove itself out, where optimism has been the rule.
 
FUD. That’s what you’ve written. It’s no different than any other fear. What you don’t understand has driven your emotional response. It’s not your fault—just your nature.

The hyperbole you’ve engaged in is all fear-based. You say the consequences are unimaginable. I’d suggest we’ve imagined the worst-case and have done so quite easily. Do you also have fears about CERN and creating a black hole? Or about environmental disaster? Perhaps the Yellowstone caldera?

It’s all about what you choose to fear. The world will keep changing. Fight it and get left behind. Or…. Look at the positives. Use your imagination to dream of what might be. It’s not often in human history that worst-case scenarios come to be. Never, actually. It’s also not often that best-case scenarios come to pass.

The one constant is that our lives keep getting better. Longer lifespans, more affluence, less work and more recreation. That’s been the constant throughout recorded history. Have a little faith. Cynicism has yet to prove itself out, where optimism has been the rule.
These are all straw man arguments. None of them address the fact that AI and other technologies are irresponsibly put into the world and consequences be damned. And Tom acknowledged positive uses for AI...his response isn't FUD at all.

I studied AI, I worked in AI and I like AI as a technology. But right now what we're seeing as use cases on the positive side are (1) answer questions quicker, (2) help write blurbs, articles, job descriptions, etc, quickly and without much effort...and the negative side are (1) replace artists, designers, musicians, and (2) replace jobs. Those negatives are really far outweighing positives right now so I think people are understandably skeptical of the long term.
 
These are all straw man arguments. None of them address the fact that AI and other technologies are irresponsibly put into the world and consequences be damned. And Tom acknowledged positive uses for AI...his response isn't FUD at all.

I studied AI, I worked in AI and I like AI as a technology. But right now what we're seeing as use cases on the positive side are (1) answer questions quicker, (2) help write blurbs, articles, job descriptions, etc, quickly and without much effort...and the negative side are (1) replace artists, designers, musicians, and (2) replace jobs. Those negatives are really far outweighing positives right now so I think people are understandably skeptical of the long term.

Of course it's FUD. It's simple fear of bad things. The sky is falling, again. Gosh, isn't it always? Depends on how excitable a person is, I suppose.

It's great that you've studied AI, worked in AI, and like AI. That, however, doesn't mean you've properly predicted the future. Yes, lots of jobs will be eliminated. That's far from a bad thing, though. Thinking it is a bad thing is not thinking of a future where menial tasks are done faster and more accurately. Thinking it's a bad thing is an example of a single-variable perspective. AI will change how we view economics, science, and social issues. It'll change the nature of work as we know it. A current world-view isn't the world we'll be living in twenty years from now.

Will telemarketers be gone? Lawyers? Doctors? Yes, as we know them today. The creativity that you see AI replacing is exactly what it won't replace--you should know that, giving your expertise in the area. Creativity is exactly what will be in demand. It'll be a different model and there'll be some displacement. That's normal.
 
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."
--Donald Rumsfeld February 12, 2002
Now I never liked the guy, but I think this sums up how we need to look at this AI situation. We know some things, we don't know other things, and we certainly don't know all things, including all the things that could or may happen (which is what our fear is trying to protect us from). There are a lot of reputable scientists sounding alarms about this stuff, and although some may think the sky is falling, we need to accept that they could be right and take steps to prevent such a catastrophe. NOBODY knows for sure. Our fear will guide (in part) how we respond, but it does not guide whether something will or will not happen, unless we choose to completely ignore all fears. Without fear to help guide us, mankind would already be extinct!

This is a complicated issue and nobody has all the answers, but we do need to consider all possibilities (including fears) in deciding how we proceed ;~))
 
Fear and the resulting anxiety are such powerful things for us. We're taught from an early age to be afraid of change.

The printing press made monks copying Bibles obsolete. What became of all of the monks?

We're on the verge of something spectacular, if we can embrace it. I'm not talking about the technology. I'm talking about the time. Productivity is about to make a giant leap. It's not the first time it's happened and it won't be the last, if history is any guide.

Three-hundred years ago, I'd likely have been an agricultural laborer. I'd have worked from dawn to dusk, every day. 150 years ago I'd have been working in a factory, likely doing twelve hours a day five days per week, with a half-Saturday (if I was lucky). Until two weeks ago, I was an office worker doing 40-50 hours a week.

We have the possibility of a 20-hour work week ahead of us, in my lifetime. More time for content consumption, Mr. Cynic. Or perhaps more time for family, creativity, and the arts. Think of all of the talent currently untapped in uncreative pursuits that has the potential to be nurtured and freed.

Resisting change like this because of fear is against my own interests.
Maybe, but if they reduce your hours they will just change you to part time or eliminate your job. Corporations don't care about people they only care about making money for their shareholders.
 
It’s dollar-driven. If people buy it, it stays or gets bigger. If they don’t, it dies on the vine. Not different than many discussions here on PRS dumping guitars and amps we love because they don’t sell to the masses.

In the end, it’s always the same. It’s not AI or any of it. It’s we humans who create the market conditions that, sometimes, eat us alive.

There’s always hope, dim as it may be.
 
Of course it's FUD. It's simple fear of bad things. The sky is falling, again. Gosh, isn't it always? Depends on how excitable a person is, I suppose.

It's great that you've studied AI, worked in AI, and like AI. That, however, doesn't mean you've properly predicted the future. Yes, lots of jobs will be eliminated. That's far from a bad thing, though. Thinking it is a bad thing is not thinking of a future where menial tasks are done faster and more accurately. Thinking it's a bad thing is an example of a single-variable perspective. AI will change how we view economics, science, and social issues. It'll change the nature of work as we know it. A current world-view isn't the world we'll be living in twenty years from now.

Will telemarketers be gone? Lawyers? Doctors? Yes, as we know them today. The creativity that you see AI replacing is exactly what it won't replace--you should know that, giving your expertise in the area. Creativity is exactly what will be in demand. It'll be a different model and there'll be some displacement. That's normal.
Menial tasks done faster comes with a huge price to pay for all the negatives, which you seem to be dismissing. You act like these aren't things that ruin people's lives, because maybe it doesn't affect you. But the fact is, there are thousands of people who've gotten laid off for the past several years in tech, there are artists and designers and musicians who can't find work. Just because things like layoffs and changes in industry have happened in the past doesn't mean it's not incredibly larger this time. It also doesn't mean change is automatically a good thing. Miners were doing dangerous work. Admin people were doing menial work. But now you're saying all change is good and so therefore artists and designers should stop having work for the sake of change. Again, straw man arguments of things that aren't comparable.
 
Menial tasks done faster comes with a huge price to pay for all the negatives, which you seem to be dismissing. You act like these aren't things that ruin people's lives, because maybe it doesn't affect you. But the fact is, there are thousands of people who've gotten laid off for the past several years in tech, there are artists and designers and musicians who can't find work. Just because things like layoffs and changes in industry have happened in the past doesn't mean it's not incredibly larger this time. It also doesn't mean change is automatically a good thing. Miners were doing dangerous work. Admin people were doing menial work. But now you're saying all change is good and so therefore artists and designers should stop having work for the sake of change. Again, straw man arguments of things that aren't comparable.

I’m not so sure you’re using “straw man arguments” correctly. :p

Again, what happened to the monks? They did something else. People have undergone job displacement time and time again. The tools people use in their jobs are always changing. None of what you’re afraid of is new. Technology making work easier isn’t new, either.
 
I’m not so sure you’re using “straw man arguments” correctly. :p

Again, what happened to the monks? They did something else. People have undergone job displacement time and time again. The tools people use in their jobs are always changing. None of what you’re afraid of is new. Technology making work easier isn’t new, either.
Who said it was new? Again, you're bringing up something that isn't what the discussion is about.

Straw man argument : "A straw man fallacy is the informal fallacy of refuting an argument different from the one actually under discussion, while not recognizing or acknowledging the distinction."
 
The Egyptian Empire, the Greek Empire, the Roman Empire, the Aztec Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the English Empire, they all collapsed. They didn't just disappear.
Your facts are a little off; so is the notion that Empires 'decline'.

Usually there are external reasons empires disappear, often the result of conquest, sometimes as the result of loss of population due to plagues and famines that cause financial upheaval, other times due to exhaustion from civil wars. And even this is an oversimplification. The reasons are much more complex. Geopolitics is a factor; it's not something that suddenly sprang up brand-new in the 20th C, even if the phrase did.

But let's talk about that idea of around 250 years for a moment.

The Egyptian empire was in existence as a single continuous culture and polity from at least 3500 BC, and powerful from around 2600 BC until the conquests of Alexander the Great in the 330s BC. So around 3200 years total. It was actually conquered by a foreign power at the tail end of the Middle Kingdom, but that only lasted until the New Kingdom around 1550 BC, so it still had another 1200 or so years to be powerful.

After Alexander the Ptolemies kept an Egyptian empire ruled by Macedonians until Clopatra bet on Antony, who was the wrong horse. She should have picked Octavian (Augustus).

The Roman Empire in the West was subjected to constant pressure from Germanic tribes, who themselves were pressured by the expansion of folks like the Huns, the Goths, the Vandals (who also took the handle!) and other groups. But even then, it started with the conquest of other Italian city-states in the 300s BC, and lasted until 476 AD, so about what, 7-800 years?

However, a significant cause of weakness in the Western Roman Empire was the crisis of the 3rd Century --there was a significant plague that is estimated to have killed millions of Romans, called the Cyprian Plague.

This plague caused tremendous losses in the population and the soldiery, caused manpower and food shortages, financial depression, and probably contributed to a series of civil wars that followed it. For example, Alexandria's population was cut to less than half, and that is thought to be typical around the empire. We know about Alexandria from contemporary sources, but other sources are not as well known. There was less production, less food, and so much loss of revenue that the coinage was debased in order to pay the bills.

This came not all that long after the Antonine Plague that killed 5-10 million people - a significant percentage of the population, estimated to be one in ten or more. It's hard to maintain an army and an economy to pay the army when that happens.

Despite all this, the Eastern Roman Empire (later called the Byzantine Empire but they still called themselves Romans) lasted until its conquest by the Turks in 1453 A.D., so lasted continuously from Constantine in the 300s for another 1200 years, for 1,000 of those years as the most powerful state in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. And that's not counting the 300 years the territory was under Western Roman control as provinces.

It should be noted that under Justinian in the 500s AD, the Eastern Roman Empire re-conquered most of Italy, Egypt, and the Middle East. Once again, a plague interrupted this expansion, called Justinian's Plague. This plague was probably the first yersinia pestis (bubonic) plague, and killed 40% of the population of Constantinople and the Mediterranean. That's a gigantic loss of people. There weren't farmers to work the land, there wasn't trade. It's a miracle that the Eastern Romans survived as a polity for 1000 years more. But they did.

The Ottoman Empire lasted from well before the conquest of Constantinople until after World War One, so for about 500 years. World War One was the cataclysm that bankrupted it, as well as Great Britain, who couldn't even repay their wartime debts, and then had to face WW2, a struggle that lasted 6 years, and sapped much of the remaining resources of the empire, not to mention manpower losses.

There were also tremendous pressures from national groups to have countries that reflected their languages, cultures, etc., and many wars of liberation that ate up resources and patience. This in fact also disrupted the Austro-Hungarian Empire significantly, and weakened it. However, one must remember that the Austro-Hungarian Empire was the offspring of the Holy Roman Empire that started with the coronation of Charlemagne in 800 AD and lasted until the end of WWI. What's that, about 1,118 years?

In other words, these things don't happen because people and soldiery are spending their time jerking off and having orgies instead of working hard. They happen for a variety of reasons, some of which can't be predicted or controlled. Others happen as the result of bad choices - for example, the Ottomans siding with the Central Powers in WWI, and facing their own liberation movements, among them the Arabs, Yugoslavs, Rumanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, etc.

Too many people have heard of Gibbons' reasons for the supposed fall of the Roman Empire. But recall that Gibbons wrote in the 1780s and 1790s, and had no access to many of the written and archaeological resources we have today. His theories are now widely discredited.

How many thousands of years was a Chinese empire in existence? How about Japan?

Food for thought, at the very least.

And hey, let's not forget about the Empire in Star Wars that seemingly goes on and on and on... ;)
 
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When I Hear The Term "Straw Man" I Immediately Go To A Whole Different Place. Think Jordan Maxwell...Check Him Out And Listen To Him And What He Has To Say.
 
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